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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.