A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
